Penang Watch

Defacto law minister Zaid Ibrahim has tendered his resignation letter to the -signifying the fall of a possible 1st domino  which may lead to the fall of the PM-ship of badawi or the entire UMNO-led Federal Government. His reason was his objection to the use/abuse of ISA against civilians and his Cabinet colleague's cool reception to his stand. While his resignation will not count towards the 30 MPs needed for  change of government (Zaid is not an MP) certainly it has exerted huge pressure on the PM & UMNO's hold of power on the Federal Govt. There are 2 dynamics here trying to reach the final line: the push to oust the PM -and also the push to oust the entire UMNO-led Federal government. Who will be faster?

To look at the dynamics there are a number of observations here:

1. The many misteps and flip flop are probably engineered by anti-Badawi faction to discredit the PM. The PM will be made to look really incompetent so that the one who take over will do it in the name of restoring order and confidence, to reduce racial and religious tension etc-no matter how incredible these claims may be. Notice that there are few Cabinet colleagues are defending Badawi at this critical juncture. The next 48 hours to 1 week may be a possible breaking point if this push come to fruition;

2. The disenchantment against the BN government is also being exploited by another push to attract defection from BN to PR. Thus far there is no outward sign of anyone making a move-probably many possible ones are calculating if there are enough of others to join them.  The push may succeed either from a pull factors eg offers from PR; or from a push factor eg unhappiness against the BN. While the offers from PR has not made the impact so far-the infighting from the 1st push may started a stampede unconsciously. So those who engineer the 1st push need to play their hands on a measured basis.

From the above scenarios it is obvious that certain moves have been made to advance their cause:

1. The reported forming of a `dream team' to replace/challenge the PM; this include the reconciliation between Tengku  Rasaleigh and Tun Mahathir's factions; the call for reconsidering of the 2010 power transition deal between Badawi and Najib; the cticisms against the ISA arrests-and perhaps also the deliberate stocking of ethnic and religious tension lately by UMNO politicians. All these are `strokes' from the 1st push; Currently they seems to hog the limelights and dominate the headlines;

2.  The chasing of the less than 50 backbenchers to Taiwan by 5 PKR leaders seems to exert pressures on the PM on the media; The closing of the Sept 16th Deadline for the mass defections to PR seems to happen without the optimism-thus Anwar has conceded that the deadline may not be reached saved for some `miracle' eg a bad fallout from the UMNO's power struggle caused by the 1st push. The plot this side seems to have stalled -and there isn't much reports on the progress on this side. There is no direction either on where this push will go-especially compared to the media hits by the 1st push.

Watch out for the contest's new development. The winner will not be known till the final line is crossed.