Penang Watch

If there were a massive hop of ruling MPs to the other sides-whether Opposition or Independant, this could trigger a general elections where there would be many uncertainties facing all sides. But at least the new majoritiy can claim to have acquired the people's mandate. Who khows Badawi may then play the Habibe role as in Indonesia's post-reformasi transition? Welcome to the `new dawn'of many exciting possibilities! At least Indonesia has fairer elections, devolution of power to local levels, freer media and overall greater democracy!

Mahathir wants BN MPs to become independents

KUALA LUMPUR, May 21 — Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has two immediate political goals – to force the resignation of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and prevent Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim from becoming the PM.

Today he disclosed his plan to achieve both objectives by urging Barisan Nasional MPs to quit the coalition, become independents and force the collapse of the Abdullah administration.

This suggestion comes at a time when some BN MPs are feeling insecure over their future in an increasingly uncertain political climate, and talk of crossovers continues to cast a shadow over Parliament.

Dr Mahathir, who resigned from Umno on Monday, attempted to mine this sense of insecurity by pointing out that if 35 BN cross over to the Opposition as speculated, the BN government will fall and the Pakatan Rakyat will form the new government. He said that crossing over to Pakatan Rakyat will not help BN MPs.

"What will happen to the BN elected representatives who cross over? They will not become the prime minister because surely a Pakatan leader will be the PM. Pakatan members will also want to become ministers and deputy ministers. How many places will be kept for BN members who cross over. Definitely not everyone will get positions," he said in a posting on his blog.

But if BN MPs leave the coalition and do not join the Opposition, they will have more options, he said. These MPs will be free to support or reject government legislation or policies or motions by the Opposition.

If this switch of allegiance leaves the backbenchers without a majority, the Abdullah Badawi-led government will fall, he noted.

"The new government can only be set up if agreed to by all BN MPs who have left the coalition because they have the power to decide whether BN or Pakatan can be the majority in Parliament...If BN replaces Datuk Seri Abdullah with someone brave, the group which has left BN can them support the BN and the BN can form the government again.

"This is one way to force Datuk Seri Abdullah to resign. After this, all BN MPs can return to their parties," he said.

His suggestion is unlikely to gain traction among the 140 BN MPs for a simple reason: there are too many ifs in the equation. For ruling coalition MPs, there is more certainty crossing over to the Pakatan Rakyat than moving into unfamiliar territory and becoming independents.

Anwar has promised several Sabah MPs including Datuk Anifah Aman senior positions in the new government. For these politicians, the game plan is to revive a Sabah political party and then join the Pakatan Rakyat. There will be little stigma attached to crossing over because they will argue that they are switching allegiance to safeguard Sabah’s interest.

Anwar has said that by Sept 16, the Pakatan Rakyat will form the new government – a scenario that sends chill up the spine of Dr Mahathir and some of his supporters. The de facto Opposition leader has said all along that Dr Mahathir with the help of some politicians and businessmen fabricated corruption and sodomy charges against him.

The former prime minister believes that the man who he sacked and jailed in 1998 will come after him with vengeance if he captures the top political office in the country.

Dr Mahathir’s strategy also presupposes that Abdullah and the BN government will meet the prospect of MPs becoming independents with inertia. The Malaysian Insider understands that the BN governnment is open to the idea of calling fresh elections if the political situation becomes unstable. And any move by a group of BN MPs to resign from their component parties and become independents will be the trigger point for the dissolution of Parliament.